CLINTON V TRUMP = DEMOCRACY V CAPITALISM - KARIM GHAIDAN

CLINTON V TRUMP = DEMOCRACY V CAPITALISM

 

America is a confused, divided and troubled nation and in less than a week’s time its people will vote on who will lead them for the next 4 years.

This article tries to explain the dichotomy facing the American electorate, a dichotomy they realise exists but not necessarily how it does.

A few short months ago it was inconceivable that Trump would win the Republican nomination giving him the right to stand as the Republican Party candidate in the US election on the 8th November.

The polls as I write put Clinton on 47% and Trump on 45.6%. How can it be this close after all the lies, cheating, insults and basest of racist remarks? This is the dichotomy and the answer lies in it.

 For better or for worse inhabitants in the Western World live in countries that can best be described as liberal capitalist democracies.

The vast majority of the inhabitants of the Western World believe that this system whilst not perfect is the best combination there is.

Like the rest of the Western World, America is described as a liberal capitalist democracy. This means that the economic system is capitalist and the political system is democratic.

Capitalism and Democracy, hand in hand resulting in equality and hard work for the betterment of all.

DEMOCRACY

Democracy is noble, it is fair, it is a leveller and men have died for it (and continue to do so) and women have thrown themselves under the thundering hooves of race horses in their quest to attain it. The notion of ‘one man one vote’ with each vote whether cast by a rich man or a poor man, or a powerful man or a weak man all counting equally.

CAPITALISM

Capitalism is not based on fairness or equality. The rich man has more than the poor man and the powerful man can exercise his power in his quest for even more whilst the weak man remains weak.

The job of capitalism is to grow and to expand. The growers and expansionists grow disproportionately richer and more powerful.

The job of democracy is to try and redress this inequitable and unfair balance. The job of democracy is therefore to act as the policeman against the excesses of capitalism. This is a dichotomy.

Therefore democracy aspiring towards fairness and equality and capitalism driven by inherent unfairness and hence inequality are in constant conflict with each other.  In its worst form the policeman is hijacked by the rich and powerful man. Another dichotomy.

Fairness and equality is therefore at the core of democracy, however neither fairness nor equality are capitalist concepts, they are socialist concepts. The ultimate dichotomy.

What has this inherent contradiction in liberal capitalist democracies got to do with the upcoming American election?

If these dichotomies become too large the electorate suddenly as if by magic behave ‘irrationally’ by exercising the one thing they have retained, their right to ‘one man, one vote’. The ballot box makes them the equal of the rich and powerful. They vote for the unconventional, the maverick, their perceived champion. The man who is going to redress the imbalance between democracy and capitalism.

It is my view that America has reached this critical stage. It has taken a mere quarter of a century to see the top 1 percent of America amass huge wealth and influence whilst the poor have gotten poorer and the middle class are descending rather than ascending the economic ladder.

The old order in which the Democratic Party represented the middle and lower income groupings and the Republican Party (with a healthy dose of fundamental religion thrown in) the industrialists, bankers and bosses has been turned on its head. The American electorate view both parties and their respective elders as representing establishment.

The forthcoming American election on the 8th of this month is all about the fight between democracy and capitalism. It is a fight that will continue to take place as long as the two are combined in the form of democratic capitalism. It is a fight that has to take place because the combination is a dichotomy.

I wrote an article after the UK BREXIT referendum which can be read here. That referendum was a fight between the insider and the outsider. The American election will in my view throw up the same unexpected result and I predict Trump to prevail by 51% versus 49% for Clinton.

I also predict that Trump will not build his wall, will not deport millions of migrants, will not ban Muslims and will not start a nuclear war.

 

Please feel free to read our FUNDAMENTAL MACRO articles here.

These macro pieces are MY opinion, you may think differently. Connect with me on LinkedIn to share YOUR opinion.
 
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