Weekly Fundamentals - 08 January 2017

 
THE WEEK AHEAD FUNDAMENTALLY - KEY DATA TO WATCH OUT FOR
 
THIS IS OUR FIRST REPORT FOR 2017. WE WISH ALL OUR READERS A VERY HEALTHY, HAPPY AND WEALTHY 2017
 
In conclusion to our report three weeks ago we wrote:
"We turn ever more increasingly bearish on risk assets
We turn ever more increasingly bullish on the precious metals
We like bonds
We do not like the USD
We particularly like the EURO and the YEN.
 
Therefore our recommendations for next week are:
"Use rallies in risk to sell into
Buy precious metals especially gold on dips
Buy bonds on dips

Sell the USD on any rallies especially against the AUD and YEN."

Now let's see how we fared on our recommendations:
Risk rose a little over the period giving us a further opportunity to sell into
Buying gold on dips proved very wise
Buying bonds on dips also was correct
Selling the USD against the AUD was premature and slightly correct against the YEN
 
A good period.
 
A quiet week in terms of data for our first report of 2017.
 
USD: The US$ Index closed lower over the period.
On Wednesday we have Crude Oil Inventories.
This is followed on Thursday by the usual Unemployment Claims figure expected at 266,000 from the previous 235,000 and the FED Chairperson speaks.
Friday is a busy day when we have both Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. The former excludes automobiles and is expected to rise from 0.2% to 0.5% whilst the latter is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.5%.
This is followed by PPI thought to decline from 0.4% to 0.1%.
Finally we have Consumer Sentiment anticipated to be 98.6 from 98.2.
COT data shows that large commercials marginally decreased their net short position in the US$ Index from -63,239 to -60,352 over the period. This is close to a 52 week extreme so we therefore remain SLIGHTLY BEARISH.
 
EURO: The EURO rose against the USD over the period.
There is no data for the EURO this week.

COT data for the Euro shows that large commercials decreased their net long position from +99,301 to +73,705 over the period. We therefore remain SLIGHTLY BEARISH.
 
GBP: The GBP fell against the USD over the period.
Only one item for the GBP this week.
On Wednesday we have Manufacturing Production which is expected to rise from -0.9% to 0.6%.
COT data shows that large commercials slightly decreased their net long position from +83,840 to +77,912 over the period. We therefore remain BULLISH.
 
YEN: The YEN rose against the USD over the period.
There is no data for the YEN this week.

COT data shows that large commercials significantly increased their net long position from +87,429 to +113,963 over the period. We therefore remain BULLISH.
 
AUD: The AUD rose against the USD over the period.
One item for the AUD this week.
On Monday we have Retail Sales expected to be 0.4% from the previous 0.5%.
COT data shows that large commercials slightly decreased their net short position from -15,825 to +14,192 over the period. We therefore remain SLIGHTLY BULLISH.
 
CNY: Three items for the CNY this week.
On Monday we have both CPI and PPI. The former is expected to decline from 2.3% to 2.2% whilst the latter is thought to jump from 3.3% to 4.6%.
There is no COT data for the CNY.
 
COT data of note on products we regularly comment on in our DAILY REPORTS and WEEKLY BONUS VIDEOS and for those products which show large commercials with extreme net positions.
 
RISK:
S&P500: The S&P500 rose slightly over the period. Large commercials substantially decreased their net long position from +76,902 and are now net short -22,856 over the period. We therefore alter our view from NEUTRAL to BEARISH.
RUSSELL2000: The RUSSELL2000 fell slightly over the period. Large commercials substantially increased their net short from -58,449 to -100,727 over the period. This is a 52 week extreme. We therefore remain BEARISH.
NASDAQ100: The NASDAQ100 rose over the period. Large commercials slightly decreased their net short position from -89,344 to -81,863 over the period. We therefore remain SLIGHTLY BEARISH.
 
COMMODITIES:
GOLD: GOLD rose over the period. Large commercials decreased their net short position from -149,886 to -117,612 over the period. Now that large commercials hold a net short position which is smaller than 200,000 we are slightly bullish. We therefore remain SLIGHTLY BULLISH.
SILVER: SILVER rose over the period. Large commercials slightly decreased their net short position from -81,131 to -75,814 over the period. We therefore remain BEARISH.
COPPER: COPPER rose over the period. Copper is an important metal as it is a leading indicator for many commodities. Large commercials decreased their net short position from -60,670 to -46,943 over the period. Large commercials generally carry a net neutral position. This is now a substantial short position and is a 52 week extreme. We therefore remain BEARISH.
CRUDE OIL: CRUDE rose slightly over the period. Large commercials increased their net short position from -447,841 to -466,764 over the period. This continues to be a 52 week extreme. We therefore remain BEARISH.
 
The gold:silver ratio increased from 70.60 to 71.30 indicating silver underperformance over the period.

DEBT:
US 30 YEAR BOND: The BOND rose over the period. Large commercials increased their net long +51,662 to +69,794 over the period. We therefore remain BULLISH.

OTHER FX:
CAN$: The CAN$ rose over the period. Large commercials decreased their net long position +20,121 to +14,171 over the period. We therefore remain SLIGHTLY BULLISH.
NZD: The NZD rose slightly over the period. Large commercials substantially increased their net long position from +2,122 to +12,140 over the period. We therefore alter our view from SLIGHTLY BULLISH to BULLISH.

THOUGHTS FOR NEXT WEEK
Two changes in COT thoughts.
We turn bearish on the S&P500 from neutral which means that all our risk indicators are now bearish and we turn bullish on the NZD from Bearish.
If we could we would also trade the CNY with a positive bias.
The inauguration of Trump as president on the 20/1 will herald the top in risk.
 
Therefore our recommendations are:
Unchanged as from our last report
Use rallies in risk to sell into
Buy precious metals especially gold on dips
Buy bonds on dips
Sell the USD on any rallies especially against the AUD, YEN and NZD.
 
For timely, accurate trade signals follow our STTS service.

For those who want to join the lucky ones receiving real time, accurate and 100% honest and transparent trade signals visit and subscribe here.

Stay nimble. Good luck trading.

CHECK OUR INTERACTIVE ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR FULL LIST OF UPCOMING DATA RELEASES

DISCLAIMER
The information contained in this publication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Users acknowledge and agree to the fact that, by its very nature, any investment in CFDs and similar and assimilated products is characterised by a certain degree of uncertainty and that, consequently, any investment of this nature involves risks for which the user is solely responsible and liable.
Any recommendation, opinion or advice contained in such material reflects the views of TFF, and TFF expressly disclaims any responsibility for any decisions or for the suitability of any security or transaction based on it. Specifically, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a security based on such research will be entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed or influenced by or attributed to TFF.
Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance. Market and exchange rate movements may cause the value of your investment to rise or fall and an investor may not get back the amount invested.
Investors considering opening a self-trading account should limit their exposure to maximum 10% of their investment capital.
Investments are not obligations of, deposits in, insured or guaranteed by TFF.